Image
Red rocks, AZ. Credit: BLM
Project Information
Principal Investigator(s):
- James R Hatten (USGS Columbia River Research Laboratory)
Co-Investigator(s):
- Barbara Ralston (USGS Southwest Biological Research Center)
Cooperator/Partner(s):
- Matthew J. Johnson (Northern Arizona University)
- Erika M Nowak (Northern Arizona University)
- Jennifer A Holmes (Northern Arizona University)
- Michael J Peters (Northern Arizona University)
- Paul Heinrich (Northern Arizona University)
- Charles Van Riper III (USGS Southwest Biological Science Center)
- J. Tomas Giermakowski (University of New Mexico)
Fiscal Year: 2012
Overview
Biodiversity is declining worldwide, and this trend could potentially become more severe as climate conditions change. An integral component of proactive adaptive management planning requires forecasts of how changes in climate will affect individual species. This need has been identified my multiple federal agencies, including the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Forest Service.
The goal of this project is to assist land and wildlife managers in anticipating which species are most vulnerable to changes in climate in the Southwest, and how resources can best be invested to facilitate adaptation. Researchers are evaluating the current and future breeding ranges of 15 bird and 16 reptile species in the western U.S. using a new approach that models variables such as temperature and precipition, terrain ruggedness and soil type, and plants that are commonly associated with each species.
Results show that two-thirds of the species examined could be expected to experience a decrease in range, while one-third could experience an increase. Climate variables are found to play a bigger role than landscape or plant variables in determining changes in species range. Researchers also found that as available habitat patches for birds and reptiles become more isolated, their ranges also contract. This finding suggests that strategic management actions focused on conserving and restoring connections between habitat patches could help lessen the severity of the projected range contractions.
The goal of this project is to assist land and wildlife managers in anticipating which species are most vulnerable to changes in climate in the Southwest, and how resources can best be invested to facilitate adaptation. Researchers are evaluating the current and future breeding ranges of 15 bird and 16 reptile species in the western U.S. using a new approach that models variables such as temperature and precipition, terrain ruggedness and soil type, and plants that are commonly associated with each species.
Results show that two-thirds of the species examined could be expected to experience a decrease in range, while one-third could experience an increase. Climate variables are found to play a bigger role than landscape or plant variables in determining changes in species range. Researchers also found that as available habitat patches for birds and reptiles become more isolated, their ranges also contract. This finding suggests that strategic management actions focused on conserving and restoring connections between habitat patches could help lessen the severity of the projected range contractions.