Southwest Region

Non-climate stresses on southwestern ecosystems and hydrologic systems increased dramatically through the 20th century as human populations expanded and human activities (for example, grazing, mining, irrigation, and urbanization) intensified. Population in the region is projected to increase through the 21st century. Land-use and management practices will change as population increases. Similarly, anthropogenic water demand has increased as population has increased in many areas that are already water-limited.

Natural climate variability combined with on-going and increasing levels of anthropogenic climate change both pose serious challenges for the Southwest and Southwestern resource managers. The Southwest is naturally the most drought-prone region of the U.S., and since 1999 has been experiencing the longest and hottest drought on record for the U.S. (Woodhouse & Overpeck, 1998; Cook et al., 2015; Udall & Overpeck, 2017). This drought has led to major reductions in runoff and river flow (e.g., flows of the largest river of the Southwest, the Colorado River, have averaged 19% below the 20th century average since 2000; Udall & Overpeck, 2017).  If the drought continues, emergency measures, including water rationing, are anticipated in the lower Colorado River Basin by 2017 or 2018.

The drought, accompanied by unusually high temperatures, is also responsible for the most widespread mortality of trees in the U.S. (e.g., in the Four-corners region, as well as California; Breshears et al., 2005; Van Mantgem et al., 2009; Williams et al., 2010). The record long, and record hot drought, has also contributed to widespread tree mortality due to insect and pathogen outbreaks, as well as unusually severe large wildfires (Williams et al., 2010; Williams et al., 2013). Most recently, it is driving direct physiological mortality of trees in the Sierra Nevada region.

It is now well established that the unprecedented Southwest drought has been exacerbated by anthropogenic warming, but it is also well documented that droughts lasting decades regularly plague the Southwest, with the longest of these “megadroughts” yet documented in the last 2000 years, being 50+ years (Routson et al., 2011). Projected 21st-century warming will increase the odds of a multidecadal megadrought in the Southwest from less than 15% to over 90% if there is no increase in mean precipitation; even if modest precipitation increases do occur, the risk will still exceed 70% (Ault et al., 2014).

Projections for future climate and water resources in the area are largely consistent with trends observed in recent decades. Temperatures have been rising across the region, and are projected to to continue increasing, with higher maxima and minima and higher numbers of high-temperature days annually (Garfin et al., 2013). Future water availability for people and ecosystems will change in less predictable ways. Although some climate models suggest increases in precipitation, others do not; moreover, there has been no trend toward greater precipitation (Udall & Overpeck, 2017). Hydrological models project more frequent drought with winter snowpack likely to decline, but changes in precipitation amounts and intensity will vary across the landscape. Additionally, changes in the seasonality of precipitation are probable and trends toward earlier melting are likely to continue. Finally, increasing temperatures are likely to offset even the most optimistic scenarios for precipitation owing to non-linear effects on vapor-pressure deficit. To sum up, the region will become increasingly water-stressed under all plausible precipitation scenarios under projected future warming.

Ecological responses to climate variability and change are complex and diverse, and will likely extend well beyond the highly visible ecological responses described above.  Many species are adjusting their elevational ranges upward (e.g., Parmesan, 2006; Brusca et al., 2013), but patterns are often complex, with some species shifting downward or staying in place (Loarie et al., 2008). Phenological patterns are also shifting across the region, and aquatic systems are challenged as well, with the very real possibility of species extinction given sufficient climate warming and drying (Overpeck & Bonar, 2017). Rapid, landscape-scale mortality of dominant trees and shrubs (wildfires, pests, physiological stress) is resetting successional clocks to zero, and may herald region-wide ecosystem transformations in the near future, with large consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

In addition to on-going warming, sea-level rise is the other climate-related change that is already occurring and sure to continue in the future (Garfin et al., 2013; Church et al., 2013). Rising sea levels resulting from global climate change will affect these systems in many ways, including inundation of low-lying areas, erosion of coastlines, and increased salinity in estuaries. These effects will compound when sea-level rise is superimposed on natural climate cycles, storms, and tides, as well as the impacts of ocean acidification and other biogeochemical changes (Pörtner et al., 2014).

Human populations of the Southwest rely on the physical and biological resources of the region for water, food, and recreation. The climate-induced changes to the quality and availability of these resources described underscores the importance of effectively understanding the needs of resource managers and delivering the best science available to them. Landscapes in the Southwest are inextricably linked to the identity and economic well-being of individuals, communities, and the region as a whole, underscoring the importance of the CASC enterprise that connects the informational needs of resource managers with the best scientific capacity available.