science Agenda
The Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (SW CASC) Science Agenda for 2025–2030 outlines key management challenges and research priorities identified by our Advisory Committee between April and October 2024. This agenda addresses urgent climate adaptation needs across the Southwest, focusing on interconnected issues like drought, wildfire risk, and ecosystem resilience.
Science Agenda (2025-2030)
| Management Challenge | Science Priorities |
|---|---|
| Adaptation Opportunities and Obstacles. Evaluating institutional, policy, and scientific opportunities and barriers to effective climate adaptation. | Inform the design of effective monitoring programs and early warning systems to detect and respond to climate change and track the impacts of adaptation strategies. |
| Assess the efficacy of climate-informed decision science, scenarios, and frameworks in the selection, application, and siting of restoration, conservation, and nature-based solution management actions. | |
| Determine effective practices for adaptation to climate change and identify ways to detect and reduce the risk of maladaptation. | |
| Develop and evaluate frameworks for effective risk communication and incorporation into decision-making. | |
| Identify strategies for respectfully and equitably including and applying Indigenous and local knowledges into planning, while respecting data sovereignty and the principles of Free, Prior, and Informed Consent. | |
| Assess how climate adaptation choices to protect natural and cultural resources are influenced by perceptions and values of decision makers, interested parties, and rightsholders. | |
| Develop strategies for assessing the relative value of additional data and/or reduced uncertainty for decision-making. | |
| Evaluate and identify appropriate climate projections to improve prioritization of conservation and restoration actions. | |
| Identify co-benefits associated with climate adaptation practices. | |
| Evaluate strategies for identifying and filling data gaps. |
| Management Challenge | Science Priorities |
|---|---|
| Water availability and long-term drought. Changing water availability and long-term drought will have cascading impacts across ecosystems and communities. | Improve understanding, observations, and estimates of changing precipitation type, seasonality, and variability, including snowpack and runoff measurements. |
| Characterize impacts of changing precipitation types, seasonality, and variability on natural and cultural resources, including identifying species and systems most vulnerable to changing precipitation and novel drought conditions. | |
| Develop and evaluate drought risk assessment tools to support management actions. | |
| Identify and evaluate methods and strategies to reduce the effects of long-term drought and water shortages, including economic evaluation, assessments of community preferences, and community impact analyses. | |
| Assess the impacts of fluctuating water levels and changes in water quality on ecosystem, fish, and wildlife health. | |
| Evaluate the impacts of climate change and drought on groundwater resources and groundwater-dependent ecosystems and communities. | |
| Understand groundwater and surface water interactions and their associated impacts on lakes, rivers, streams, and aquatic systems. |
| Management Challenge | Science Priorities |
|---|---|
| Altered Fire Regimes. Shifts in the timing, frequency, size, and impacts of wildfires are challenging existing resource management approaches. | Further investigate climate change impacts on changing fire regimes, especially in non-forested ecosystems. |
| Assess the impacts of changing fire regimes on natural and cultural resources. | |
| Identify and evaluate ecosystem and social vulnerabilities to wildfire. | |
| Advance understanding of how pre- and post-wildfire conditions and treatments influence fire risk, spread, and behavior. | |
| Determine the interacting effects of changing fuel loads and types, including invasive species spread, on altered fire regimes and ecosystem resilience. | |
| Identify best practices for fuels reduction treatments, including siting, seasonality, and implementation for fire hazard reduction. | |
| Evaluate the role of Indigenous fire management practices, prescribed fire, and other management activities in reducing fire risk and increasing resilience, including identifying barriers and opportunities to broaden practices. | |
| Evaluate and assess post-wildfire restoration and adaptation approaches and monitoring. | |
| Evaluate economic and social trade-offs and benefits of proactive versus reactive fire management strategies. |
| Management Challenge | Science Priorities |
|---|---|
| High-Impact Events. Environmental extreme events, from heat waves, flash drought, and algal blooms, to insect outbreaks, flooding, and fire. | Analyze the cascading and compounding impacts from extreme events and opportunities for adaptation. |
| Identify vulnerabilities and evaluate management strategies to prepare for high-impact events. | |
| Investigate social and economic vulnerabilities to high-impact events, particularly in underserved communities. | |
| Assess the climate-related factors contributing to insect and disease outbreaks. | |
| Evaluate changing flood regimes and associated impacts, and potential adaptation strategies. | |
| Assess post-wildfire hazards and strategies for adaptation in burned area emergency response and rehabilitation. |
| Management Challenge | Science Priorities |
|---|---|
| Changing Ecosystems. Shifts in vegetation and human responses to climate change can alter the landscape’s ability to support endemic, high-priority, and at-risk wildlife and plant species. | Improve understanding of climate-driven species movements, population dynamics, range shifts, and connectivity. |
| Identify the extent, distribution, and persistence of climate refugia and corridors. | |
| Identify climate tipping points for terrestrial and aquatic species and improve decision support for managing associated impacts. | |
| Determine the climate-related factors contributing to the establishment and spread of non-native species, including invasive species. | |
| Evaluate the efficacy of invasive species management approaches for climate adaptation. | |
| Determine and evaluate management best practices for ecosystem and species conservation and restoration, given projected climate change. | |
| Better understand climate impacts on plant-pollinator relationships. | |
| Identify the impacts of management actions on carbon sequestration. | |
| Identify best approaches for habitat suitability modeling under a changing climate. | |
| Evaluate the efficacy of adaptation frameworks such as Resist, Accept, Direct, including identification of monitoring strategies and protocols. | |
| Better understand the ecological and social implications of ecosystem change, including better understanding acceptable levels of change. | |
| Develop and evaluate strategies for climate-smart ecosystem restoration, including decision guidance for when and how to implement. | |
| Develop frameworks for decision support in managing species movement and range shifts in response to climate change. |
| Management Challenge | Science Priorities |
|---|---|
| Changing Coastal Environments. Sea-level rise, increased storm surge, changing ocean temperatures, marine heatwaves, coastal erosion, and loss of wetlands are impacting coastal ecosystems and communities. | Assess the impacts of climate change on coastal and nearshore ecosystems. |
| Identify and assess regions, species, and habitats at greatest risk of climate-driven coastal hazards, including sea-level rise, flooding, erosion, and storm surge. | |
| Use climate change projections to identify potential future climate impacts on biotic and abiotic characteristics along the coast. | |
| Identify opportunities for coastal habitat adaptation. | |
| Evaluate sea-level rise projections and uncertainty estimates to inform use in research and decision-making. | |
| Identify and evaluate adaptation activities to increase resilience to sea-level rise. | |
| Identify and evaluate opportunities for nature-based solutions to changing coastlines. | |
| Determine the impacts and extent of ocean acidification on coastal and nearshore ecosystem function. | |
| Evaluate the social, cultural, and economic vulnerabilities of coastal regions and policies that constrain or advance adaptive capacity. |