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How do Atmospheric Rivers and Downslope Winds Affect Wildfire Risk and Water Resources in the Arid Southwest?

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The headwaters of the Colorado and Gunnison Rivers

The headwaters of the Colorado and Gunnison Rivers. Credit: Alan Cressler (USGS)

Project Summary

Principal Investigator(s):

  • Alexander Gershunov (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)

Co-Investigator(s):

  • Dan Cayan (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
  • Rachel Clemesha (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
  • Park Williams (University of California, Los Angeles)

Cooperator/Partner(s):

  • Benjamin Hatchett (Colorado State University)
  • Shasta Gaughen (Pala Band of Mission Indians)
  • Romain Meandley (California Department of Water Resources)
  • Andrew Schwarz (California Department of Water Resources)
  • Wyatt Arnold (California Department of Water Resources)
  • Seth Shanahan (Southern Nevada Water Authority)

Fiscal Year: 2023

Start Date: 03/01/2024

End Date: 02/28/2027

Project Overview 

Summary:  

The complex mountain and valley chains of the Southwest exert a strong influence on precipitation and wind patterns. Atmospheric rivers deliver some of the most extreme precipitation events to west-southwest-facing slopes of the mountains where strong gusty downslope winds can also spread wildfires. Climate change is making the southwest warmer and dryer resulting in more fire-prone vegetation and more frequent and extreme atmospheric rivers. Understanding this changing system is critical for managing water resources and wildfire in the region. 

This project will study how climate change is impacting precipitation and winds to create fire weather and drive fire spread on heavily vegetated slopes of coastal mountains. We will engage with state and tribal stakeholders to translate science into action on water resource and wildfire management. 

Results from this research will signal locations of high fire risk based on changing atmospheric river and wind conditions which can help managers prioritize locations for fire and water management actions. Other project outcomes include co-produced research articles and presentations, as well as workshops to develop best practices in water and wildfire management. 

Related Publications

The Western United States Large Forest-Fire Stochastic Simulator (WULFFSS) 1.0: a monthly gridded forest-fire model using interpretable statistics
Simulating the Potential for Invasive Grass Expansion to Alter Wildfire Behavior in Southern California With WRF-Fire
The Western United States MTBS-Interagency database of large wildfires, 1984–2024 (WUMI2024a)
Spatiotemporal Synchrony of Climate and Fire Occurrence Across North American Forests (1750–1880)
Influence of Time-Averaging of Climate Data on Estimates of Atmospheric Vapor Pressure Deficit and Inferred Relationships With Wildfire Area in the Western United States