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Assessment of Available Climate Models and Projections for the Southwest Region

Image
Sierra Nevada mountains in background with trees in fall

Sierra Nevada. Credit: BLM

Project Summary

Principal Investigator(s):

  • Mark Schwartz (University of California - Davis)

Fiscal Year: 2011

Start Date: 09/29/2011

End Date: 12/29/2012

Project Overview 

Summary:  

The goal of this project was to: (a) archive the relevant AR5 model output data for the southwest region; (b) downscale daily temperature and precipitation to 12 X 12 km cell spatial resolution over the Southwest; (c) assess the precision (degree of agreement) of the simulated models; (d) assess the direction and magnitude of change in projections between AR4 and AR5, as well as assess projections of key extreme climatic events (i.e., extreme drought, extreme seasonal precipitation, extreme high and low temperature events); and (e) assess critical ecosystem impacts (i.e., climate water deficit and fire; hydrological condition of major river systems; impacts on highly valued species).

Related Publications

  • Advances in climate models from CMIP3 to CMIP5 do not change predictions of future habitat suitability for California reptiles and amphibians
  • Multiple sources of uncertainty affect metrics for ranking conservation risk under climate change
  • The Impact of Recent Heat Waves on Human Health in California
  • The Uneven Response of Different Snow Measures to Human-Induced Climate Warming
  • Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models