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Analysis of Downscaled Climate Simulations and Projections and Their Use in Decision Making for the Southwest

Snowy Sierra Nevada Mountains

Sierra Nevada, CA. Credit: BLM

Project Summary

Principal Investigator(s):

  • Daniel R Cayan (USGS Branch of Regional Research)

Cooperator/Partner(s):

  • Bridget Thrasher (Climate Analytics Group)
  • Alex Hall (University of California, Los Angeles)
  • Alexander Gershunov (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
  • Michael Dettinger (USGS Branch of Regional Research)

Fiscal Year: 2012

Start Date: 09/19/2012

End Date: 09/18/2014

Project Overview 

Summary:  

To understand potential climate change impacts on ecosystems, water resources, and numerous other natural and managed resources, climate change data and projections must be downscaled from coarse global climate models to much finer resolutions and more applicable formats. This project conducted comparative analyses to better understand the accuracy and properties of these downscaled climate simulations and climate-change projections. Interpretation, guidance and evaluation, including measures of uncertainties, strengths and weaknesses of the different methodologies for each simulation, can enable potential users with the necessary information to select and apply the models. 

Related Publications

  • Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
  • A Multidisciplinary Coastal Vulnerability Assessment for Local Government Focused on Ecosystems, Santa Barbara Area, California
  • Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling
  • Downscaling humidity with Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) over the conterminous United States
  • Errors in climate model daily precipitation and temperature output: time invariance and implications for bias correction
  • Twenty-First-Century Snowfall and Snowpack Changes over the Southern California Mountains
  • Improved Bias Correction Techniques for Hydrological Simulations of Climate Change
  • A Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part I: Development and Validation of the Technique
  • A Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part II: End-of-Century Warming Projections Predict a New Climate State in the Los Angeles Region
  • Statistical Downscaling Using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA)
  • An Enhanced Archive Facilitating Climate Impacts and Adaptation Analysis
  • The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes